Freshwater Cycle Out of Balance, Shortage of 40% Projected by 2030

Deserts like this in Namibia are becoming far more common on every continent, creating water stress on all food crops grown there. Virtually 100% of the desertification of the planet is now caused by human beings. Image: Image by Ton W

Scientists, activists, and policymakers have called out the climate crisis for years as behind rising sea levels, more frequent and powerful extreme weather events, deepening and spreading drought conditions on most continents, crop failures, species extinctions, and increased vector-based disease via insects. The authors of the new report are now reminding us of how deeply intertwined that crisis is with our “decades-long human mismanagement of water”, and how the coming global freshwater shortage will hit us all harder and faster than most everything else being projected for global heating alone.

In introducing its report, the Commission’s authors point out that because of our abuse of freshwater systems due to agricultural runoff, deliberate or accidental sewage leakage, encroachment on wetlands, and projects which are too close to the edges of streams, rivers, and lakes, we cause extensive damage to existing freshwater systems daily.

We also overuse the water supplies we have, so that, as the report explains, arid countries such as Kuwait used roughly 40% more freshwater than it had readily available in 2019. Saudi Arabia used up over ten times its available ready supply of freshwater in the same year. Both nations rely heavily on desalinization which is energy intensive and makes the Persian Gulf more saline, impacting marine species.

A similar pattern follows in most of the rest of the Arab countries and in North Africa.

While the geography of these numbers may lead one to believe it is just the driest and hottest nations of the world which are using too much water, that is far from true. In India, for example, the country is already drawing on as much as 50% to 75% of the freshwater available for it for all purposes, including agriculture, drinking water, cooling systems, and sewage. Its aquifers are running dry because of that overuse as well, causing collapse of nature’s water system despite the annual flood of water brought with summer’s monsoons and border cyclones.

South Africa, which has had serious water shortages for years, is also in the 50%-75% overuse category.

Similar problems with overuse and aquifer collapse are happening in Asian countries such as much of China, which — with it currently using on average between 25% and 50% of available water every year has found itself plagued with such serious drought that major crop shortages occurred the last few years. In Southeast Asia, the Philippines is also “overdrawn” in its aquifer water and has already begun to see rainfall patterns shifting due to global heating.

In the western hemisphere, continuing drought has pushed Alaska, the continental United States, and Mexico to the point where those regions are also currently using 25% to 50% of all available freshwater every year.

Behind all this is a complex problem encompassing not just usage and public policy which even encourages overuse. It also involves our construction of intense heating and reheating urban zones, clearing of land for buildings and agriculture areas where wild fields and wetlands used to be, and the elimination of plant habitats where moisture is held close.

These on their own are causing a long-term harmful transformation to global water cycles everywhere. But when the climate crisis and global heating are added in, the situation becomes even worse, as water which used to remain on or close to the ground evaporates into higher levels of the atmosphere, in a process called evapotranspiration. That is part of the engine which is causing more intense rainfalls especially in the tropics, and even the atmospheric rivers which have come in waves from the Pacific Ocean into California all the up to British Columbia in the last several years.

As these cycles are altered further, many are now becoming aware of a truth which many policymakers attempt to ignore at their peril: that on average over 50% of the freshwater which is present with a country’s borders is only there thanks to healthy natural hydrological systems in neighboring lands.

“This mismanagement of water has pushed the global water cycle out of balance for the first time in human history,” the report concludes. It is so severe, the analysis goes on, that, “We now face the prospect of a 40% shortfall in freshwater supply by 2030, with severe shortages in water-constrained regions.”

To address this challenge, the Global Commission on the Economics of Water made the following high-level recommendations:

Begin to “manage the global water cycle as a global common good, to be protected collectively and in the interests of all”. Currently it is all being managed with a territorial approach rather than as a deeply interconnected and interdependent problem.

Address the problem as systemic rather than something broken down into smaller problems addressed individually.

“It means mobilizing multiple stakeholders, public, private, civil society and local community; utilizing innovation policy to catalyze solutions to concrete problems; and scaling up investments in water through new modalities of public-private partnerships,” the report explains.

Stop “underpricing water” for all, and support those most vulnerable who cannot afford it via special means.

Eliminate the “US $700 billion of subsidies in agriculture and water each year, which tend to generate excessive water consumption and other environmentally damaging practices.”

Make it a mission to “drastically reduce leakages in water systems (“non-revenue water”) that cost billions annually, by prioritizing sustained maintenance efforts.”

Move to expand the measure and disclosure of water usage footprints in all areas of human activity.

Structure, fund, and set up “Just Water Partnerships (JWPs) to enable investments in water access, resilience and sustainability in low- and middle-income countries, using approaches that contribute to both national development goals and the global common good.” This could be similar to the way renewable energy projects are increasingly structured and funded worldwide.

Transform how we manage water management to a multilateral rather than nationalistic approach. We need to treat freshwater and the ecosystems which support it with the same care we claim to be moving towards in caring for the oceans.

Aggressively go after improvements in water consumption efficiency as aggressively as we are innovative in alternative energy development and zero-emissions transportation systems. The report notes the following as examples:

Fortify “freshwater storage systems, especially the natural assets such as wetlands and groundwater, which have been dangerously depleted”.

Develop “the urban circular water economy especially by recycling industrial and urban wastewater, which remains largely untreated”.

Slash “water footprints in manufacturing, including the reuse of water in producing critical materials such as the lithium we need for electrification”.

Restructure agribusiness to incorporate “precision irrigation, less water-intensive crops and drought-resilient farming that can also raise incomes”.

The Global Commission on the Economics of Water timed the release of their report to be ready as the UN 2023 Water Conference, which runs from March 22-24 in New York City, for what leaders hope will provide at least some breakthrough agreements.

The Global Commission’s report, “Turning the Tide: A Call to Collective Action”, is available for download at its website.

For its part, Climate Survival Solutions is developing its PolyBio System^TM, a circular wastewater conversion technology that converts wastewater into energy, nutrients, raw materials, food and pure water. It is designed to work with a variety of wastewater inputs and pay for itself. By mimicking nature and recycling 100% of water in a circular system, water shortages can be averted.