Dangerous Drought in Europe Gets a Head Start in 2023

The canals of Venice are drying out due to severe drought caused by the climate crisis and an unusually low tide. Photo: Salman Ali Awan, Via Twitter

Last year was already the driest and hottest in history for much of Europe.

Signs of what was about to happen last year began to appear as early as May. It was then that hot dry high pressure air masses from Africa had spread across Spain and Portugal – the Iberian peninsula – brought temperatures in the region well over 40° C (104° F) in cities as widespread as Seville, Andalusia, and the outskirts of Madrid.

May 2022 ended up in the record books as Spain’s warmest ever.

As of early July, the Copernicus Emergency Management Service’s maps showed 47% of Europe was suffering from extreme drought conditions.

Germany was so dry  that heat-triggered evaporation in the Rhine River, which is used for approximately 80% of agricultural shipments in the country and a sizeable majority of all industrial ones, was forcing shipping barges to lighten their loads to avoid bottoming-out in transit. The Loire River in France and the Po in Italy were also at record lows, causing agricultural harvests to whither and boat passages to be restricted.

Spain and Portugal’s oppressive heat from May had continued, and with little rain there as well those nations were now dealing with a drought so severe it was now ranked as the worst in 1200 years.

The same month temperatures in the United Kingdom were so high that railways were having to be shut down as the tracks buckled under ground temperature buildups of up to 62° C (144° F).

By August, the European Commission issued a report showing that the 47% drought reported only a month before had expanded so that around three-quarters of the continent was now in a state of serious to extreme drought. Temperatures were continuing to rise and precipitation remained at dangerously low levels.

Spain and Portugal also noted water reservoir levels falling quickly, with impacts on hydroelectric power production in addition to access to water for irrigation and drinking water.

The situation grew bad enough that, effective in September 2022, the country of Spain announced it would no longer be fully supporting the terms of the Albufeira Convention, a treaty which allowed for transfer of water from Spain to Portugal in the case of an emergency. Portugal is already worried about what that might mean by later this year.

Predictions as early as January estimated last year’s records would likely be broken. Early conditions from as far north as the United Kingdom and as far south as Italy say those predictions will probably be right.

The year started with January temperatures being overall the third highest in Europe for all time.

A map of European drought conditions as of the third ten day period in January 2023. Photo: Copernicus European Drought Observatory (EDO)

Then came warnings from the European Union’s Copernicus program, which is already forecasting serious soil moisture shortages over a surprisingly large geographic range. Northern Spain, southwestern France, southern Germany, and northern Italy are already on the list of areas of concern. So too are large sections of southern Bulgaria and northern Greece. A significant percentage of Turkey is also affected.

Drought showing in a reservoir in Portomarin, Spain. Photo: Fresco Tours

With water reservoirs in Spain already at just 50.7% of capacity, for an average of 20% net below their averages of the last ten years, city and regional governments have begun implementing multiple emergency water restrictions. Barcelona and much of the Catalonia region are now blocked from using supplies normally reserved for drinking or cooking needs to wash homes or cars, or to fill swimming pools.

In Italy, the city of Venice is already making headlines as a combination of unusually low tides and drought have dried up internal canals in the city and lowered the water levels surrounding it. Gondolas lay benched in gutters which used to be full and formed the basis for countless millions of tourist photo memories every day. The well-known historical site St. Mark’s Square (Piazza San Marco, which in other years has flooded out at high tides in rainier times, with those visiting forced to walk on boards or wear waders to keep from getting their feet soaked, now is bone dry with heat cracking some of the limestone and other materials holding the walkways together. Water taxis which bring people and goods into the city also are having to take more care navigating their way through the region.

Lakes from northern Italy southwards are running dry, as is the River Po, a main water artery in the nation which now has less than 40% of its normal water supply for this time of year.

In the Italian and Swiss Alps, the mountains have received under 50% of their normal snowfall. The visible images that are most striking come from the many ski resorts which do not have enough snow to operate. But the most severe impacts will be felt later, as the lack of snowpack will cause the farmlands near by to brown out early.

In France, as of February 21 the country had a dry spell lasting 31 days with less than a millimeter of rain each of those days. According to Meteo France, the national weather service, this is the longest such stretch without rain since 1959. It broke an earlier record of 22 days straight without rain; that was set in 1989.

Lack of rain in England, which is currently only in slightly better shape with respect to drought than last summer, has kept most of the country designated as recovering from what happened last year rather than yet back to normal. In the regions of Devon and East Anglia, and Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly, the situation is vastly different. The areas there are now still sufficiently dry – and not getting any better – that they have officially been put under “drought” status.

East Anglia is one of the most serious places this drought status could have happened, as it is where a sizeable part of local agricultural products are grown. With food security at high risk now, supermarkets have been engaging in rationing programs to minimize the chance of running out either from normal buying or panic purchases. Staples such as lettuce, broccoli, cucumbers, peppers, and tomatoes are running scarce for most in England at this time.

According to record-keepers in the nation, some 56% of rivers are below normal levels, with water reservoirs still not having recovered at all from last year’s lack of rainfall.

England’s National Drought Group, a collective of especially concerned parties including water companies, multiple government agencies including the Environmental Agency, and the Met Office which tracks weather events, has already begun planning for worst-case scenarios. It has also issued a first formal warning that it would take just one additional long dry period to push the country over the edge and back into the same severe drought which paralyzed the country last year.

The group has also already taken the unusual step of preparing what are known as “emergency abstraction licenses” in advance for agricultural regions which may need quick access to water soon.

The National Drought Group is also studying whether to issue emergency orders now rather than later to preserve precious water resources before there are few ways to recover. These orders could include issuing temporary bans on the usual items or limiting washing of cars or buildings, or filling swimming pools. The pools are of special concern as heat increases, because while they do take considerable water to keep them topped and safe, they also represent one of the many ways people “beat the heat” as summer grows more intense. This will be especially important as power outages kick in from cutting off energy supplies from Russia.

The National Farmers Union (NFU), which just concluded a convention of their members recently held in Birmingham, drew an unusually high level attention by senior officials both within the NFU but also the UK government as well.

Current NFU President Minette Batters set the tone for the conference, noting that for most 2022 was “the year that the potential impact of climate change really hit home”.

“The extraordinary temperatures we experienced in July — exceeding 40 degrees — topped the previous record by almost a degree and a half,” she told her audience. “And while many parts of the country have experienced huge amounts of rainfall recently, impacting farming operations over autumn and winter, some counties remain in official drought status.”

John Leyland, chair of the National Drought Group and head of the UK’s Environmental Agency, built on those remarks with a message of the need for early strong measures this year. He also took the time to remind all that this was about far more than just about farmers or even just people. It was about the survival of all creatures and the habitats they live within.

“While most water levels have returned to normal across much of the country, low rainfall in recent weeks highlights the importance of remaining vigilant,” he said. “We cannot rely on the weather alone, which is why the Environment Agency, water companies and our partners are taking action to ensure water resources are in the best possible position both for the summer and for future droughts.

“As ever, it is important that we all continue to use water carefully to protect not just our water resources but our precious environment and the wildlife that depends on it.”

With projections ahead as to what spring and summer will likely be, protecting those resources is going to be a much tougher job than normal. It will also be a time when in addition to the high costs of energy which have created major economic hardship for much of the continent last year, most countries will be dealing with rocketing food prices and water costs well beyond anything most have ever had to deal with.